Latest For LearnVest: A 2014 Real Estate Forecast

My latest piece for LearnVest is a forecast about national real estate in 2014. The market has been all over the place in the last five years, what with high foreclosures in some areas and median prices in the mid to six figures in other areas. (Hello, New York City!)

I spoke with some experts and combed a little data and came up with this piece. Since most dinner party conversations eventually turn towards real estate, read up and sound smart over dessert.

What’s Happening in Real Estate in 2014

Holiday Lull? Go Look For A House

I have a quick piece on LearnVest today about why the winter lull is a good time to look for a house. Back when I was a broker I liked this time of year a lot since people who were looking were motivated and closed things up quickly. I still tell friends who are looking to rent to move between November and January. The inventory is lower, but, at least in Manhattan, prices are lower as well.

House Hunting? Why Winter Is a Great Time to Buy Real Estate

The Co-Op Board Interview

As someone who was on her co-op's board for two years, I can assure you this SNL skit isn't too far from the truth.

Taking The Hits = The Best Motivator

While we're on the subject of the publishing world, this is worth a watch. Barbara Corcoran talks about how her best sales people were never the ones with the best contacts, but the ones who could take a big hit and get back up. Insecurity, she says, is the greatest motivator. When someone has something to prove, no one can get in their way.

Rejection is 90% of life in publishing and media. Take it too personally, and you'll be back in the bread line.

Right now I have a whole bunch of one bedrooms around $3500 or so right off Fifth Avenue along the Upper East Side. Below is one of them on 88th Street and Fifth Avenue. It's a great deal for $3500, large enough for a couple, and in a lovely elevator building.

Full specs here.

Today was turning out to be a real snooze until I got an e-mail to check out this four bedroom penthouse over on East 57th Street.

Full floor and every room has floor to ceiling windows. Eat-in kitchen, two balconies and the biggest living room I've ever seen. Triple exposures.

Full specs here.



And me, on one of the two balconies, trying to get a shot of the amazing view. I bet it's even better at night.

New Huffington Post Piece

I'm at it again over on The Huffington Post, with a piece that explains why the vacancy rate in Manattah has tightened up and why rents have gone up more than most expected this year.

Three Reasons Why Vacancy Is Tight in Manhattan and Rents Are Higher

I Love It When I'm Right, Which Is Often

Back in January, I wrote a piece for The Huffington Post about how, from my perch in the trenches on Manhattan real estate, it seemed as if the rental market was changing -- rents were higher, there were fewer incentives for tenants, etc. Most of my clients this past winter were relocating to the city with well-paid jobs. Many were frustrated by the lack of no-fee apartments, or that the owner wouldn't throw in a free month of rent.

Is A Warming Rental Market A Sign Of A Better Economy

Today, the New York Post had a piece about how, in fact, according to real numbers, there is less inventory and rent is higher.

The Rent's High? Too Damn Bad

And the Wall Street Journal, last week.

Manhattan Rents on the Rise

A 104-Year-Old Copper Heiress Livied Among Us -- Who Knew?

Over the past few days I've become fascinated by the story of Huguette Clark, the 104-year-old copper heiress who recently passed away. She was a bit of a recluse, but owned fabulous properties, including one in New Canaan, CT, and a palatial spread on Fifth Avenue and 72nd Street. All this, depsite living in assorted hospitals in Manhattan for the past 22 years.

I'm a bit of a nerd about Gilded Age Manhattan ever since reading 740 Park. This story taps into whatever reptilian part of my brain digs stories of heiresses and all things Brook Astor.

The New York Times had a great piece about her here.

MSNBC has a whole bunch of well done videos.

The New York Observer has the requisite piece about brokers licking their chops for the listing for the apartment, which is actually so large it would give any future owner a disproportionate amount of shares in the co-op, which could be an issue.

This Exists. And It Is Right.

Yesterday I was kicking around East End Avenue and decided to pop into this Classic Seven. It is easily one of the most amazing rental apartments I have ever seen. Its uniqueness is not in its size (2500 square feet) or its intact, pre-war detail. (Entry foyer, formal dining room and maid's room.)

Rather, the key here is that all the modern upgrades were done by the former tenant. The crown moldings, the marble floor in the foyer, the Viking stove and the wine cooler were all on their dime. You know you love a place when you're footing the bill for the numerous, custom, California Closets.

Bit of trivia: When this building was built and designed in 1928, these units were duplexes. Talk about pre-war grandeur. They were converted to single floor, Classic Sevens in the 1950s. This explain the (slightly) dropped ceilings in the foyer.

Full specs here. Photos below.

Consider The Classic Six

The Classic Six is the quintessential New York City apartment: Living room, formal dining room, kitchen, two bedrooms and a maids room. Add an extra bedroom and you've got a Classic Seven. It's nice space if you can get it, and you can get it if you try.

The interesting bit about Classic Sixes, from a rental perspective, is that even though their numbers are small compared to other kinds of two and three bedrooms, Classic Sixes turn over pretty frequently. These are the kinds of units that people like to purchase -- they're designed as homes -- but when someone has to move to a neighborhood for specific reason -- a job near a hospital or within a school zone, they take these places for a year or so while they look for one to buy. That said, if you ever find yourself in need of a Classic Six, you'll usually have plenty to choose from. And by plenty, I mean at least a handful.

Full specs on this unit in the East 80s here. At $7950 it's a deal. Most are closer to $10,000 to $12,000 a month.

Fifth Avenue And 67th Street One Bedroom $3650!

This is a deal. An 840 square foot one bedroom with a proper entry foyer for $3650. E. 67th Street between Fifth Avenue and Madison. Elevator/laundry building and Central Park is literally half a block away.

South facing and fully renovated. Would be perfect for a couple.

This piece from Bloomberg pretty much echos everything I've been crowing about for the past four months about the rental market changing drastically from the past two years.

Free rent and paid broker fees are going the way of the Dodo bird. Welcome to the spring and summer rental market!
Manhattan Apartment Rents Jump as Owners Curb Incentives in Tighter Market

Excessively Large Sutton One Bedroom With Terrace

Every now and then I find an apartment that I don't want to leave. This is one of them.

The $4,000 one bedroom inventory is a fascinating set, and one that I love exploring. $4,000 - $5,000, incidentally, is exactly the point where one should consider just buying a place, because the cost of rent at that level is equal to what a mortgage and maintenance payment would be.

This is an 1,100 square foot one bedroom with a terrace on 55th Street right off First Avenue. Leafy Sutton at its best. It has two full baths, two walk in closets, a chef's kitchen with stainless steel appliances -- all in a white glove doorman building.

Full specs here.

Happy Monday!

OK, the weekend's over and I'm back from my class. If anyone has questions about landlord/tenant law or how often a water tank needs to be cleaned, I'm your gal.

First: Read this wonderful piece in the Times Real Estate section about my former colleague Jason. (He takes those photos that I always post on this blog.) I totally remember when our office got that little studio and no client wanted it. When we got it the walls were orange and dusty. Jason did an amazing job with the place.

Second: Last week I lost a deal because of some bad reviews about a building Yelp. A building, I might add, that is owned by arguably one of the best landlords in town. We all know that people only write bad reviews on Yelp when they're disgruntled, crazy or all of the above. They should be taken with a grain of salt.

I wrote this piece for the Huffington Post two years ago when a similar incident occurred. Admittedly I'm bitter because I'm out of a commission, but the larger issue that's been raised is how when one contacts Yelp to discuss these bad reviews, they refuse to take them down, citing that they fall under the umbrella of Fair Comment. (I'm not sure how fair it is to malign someone's business because a super didn't respond to a call fast enough, but whatever.) Clearly, I'm not the biggest fan of Yelp, or any of these review sites.

Last but not least, a little cartoon for you Carl Sagan fans:

Murray Hill Park Avenue Penthouse Level Duplex

Oh, Murray Hill. Why do I like you so much? You're as vanilla as a neighborhood can get, and yet you offer everything I need: grocery stores, nice restaurants, and a huge park for the boy to run around in.

Also: you have apartments like this for $5800 a month. A two bedroom penthouse duplex with two terraces. A formal dining room. Two and a half baths. White glove doorman. Hardly the den for the post-college, Daddy's-Paying-My-Rent set.

Full specs and floor plans here. Who says Murray Hill doesn't have flava?

If there's one economic indicator that I'm obsessed with (and who doesn't have a favorite?) it's the unemployment rate. Moreso than new home sales or construction, the unemployment rate, specifically in New York City, affects my business directly. If you don't have a job, you can't rent an apartment. If you can't rent an apartment, then I make no commission.

This piece about the national unemployment rate dropping to 8.8% was good news. Since all economics is local, I'm even more pleased to see that it's 8.7% in New York State. It's slightly higher in New York City, but the data includes all five boroughs, not just Manhattan. The Bronx, which has a ridiculously high unemployment rate, skews the numbers.

According to this chart, unemployment in Manhattan is less then 8.0% While still high, it's lower than it was last year.

A few days ago Business Insider ran the following chart that also implies an increase in hiring.

This is the private payrolls diffusion index. When the breadth of industries adding jobs is as wide as it is, payrolls will advance.


All this means that as a tenant -- in Manhattan -- you can't belly ache that the economy is bad and therefore the rent shouldn't go up. (I've been getting a lot of that lately.) If people are employed, then their $3000 apartment from two years ago is now going to be $3200 or more, because the owner can clearly get $3200 from a new tenant.

There's another, more basic reason for rising rents in Manhattan: inflation. Prices go up over time. You don't need a Ph.D in economics to know this. Landlords are running a business, not a charity. To think that rent will never go up, despite the rising cost of heating oil, basic maintenance, local taxes, etc. is silly. While you may be renter, the owner is just that -- a building owner -- and he is absorbing all the costs of owning real property. If a boiler needs to be replaced or a roof patched, it will be reflected in your rent -- recession or no recession.

And that, mes amis, is why the brief, halcyon days on lower rents in Manhattan is finished.

East Village Duplex One Bedroom -- Penthouse Level With Terrace

Look what fell into my lap today: a one bedroom duplex on Cooper Square and Saint Marks Place in the East Village. It's a rental unit in a condo building, and is two levels of downtown hipness. King sized bedroom that leads to an east-facing terrace. It's quite the bachelor pad.

$3500. Immediate move-ins only.

Full specs here.

Murray Hill One Bedroom With Yard -- $2300

Spring has sprung over in Murray Hill. This one bedroom with a 500 square foot backyard is only $2300. The living room is large and the bedroom easily holds a queen sized bed. It's perfect for a single person who likes to entertain -- and there's plenty of space to do just that. It's on 35th Street and Second Avenue, an easy walk if one needs to do a reverse commute out of Grand Central.

Full listing here.

I have a new piece today on The Huffington Post. More of my economic theories based on the rental market.

Is A Warming Rental Market A Sign Of A Better Economy?